Capable but Waiting

Andy Burnham, is in all likelihood, the next Prime Minister. An electorate just shy of 80,000 will decide the direction of the Labour Party and the country - at least until the next challenger materialises.

The last time a Prime Minister who began wielding power from an election, and subsequently lost said power from an election was Ted Heath. Ted. Heath. Over 50 years ago.

Of course, it is pertinent to caveat this with the usual technicalities; Major did win an election and then lose one. Yet he didn’t get his first taste of power from the electorate. As is becoming worryingly common in the UK, internal party politics depose Prime Ministers rather than the people who vote for their ascent.

Turn on the news. This time it’s Labour’s time to fight each other. A historic landslide in 2024 and two years later it looks as if Starmer will join a concerningly long line at what I can only describe as the specialised ‘begrudged leaders job centre’ - or as mere mortals would put it - the extremely lucrative private sector.

I don’t believe having a presidential style system would make life any better. It creates a veneer of stability, of course, but it diverges into scenarios where the head of government or state is paralysed from lack of authority, and the lawmakers are paralysed in their ability to remove them.

Burnham doesn’t face this issue. For better or for worse, it is in the hands of 80,000 Mancunians whether Starmer has even a fighting shot at staying on.

Oddly - or perhaps strategically - Burnham isn’t standing in what I would describe as a safe Labour seat. Although it’s worth saying that safe seats do not exist anymore. Nevertheless, Reform did very well in Makerfield in the 2024 general, picking up just shy of 32% of the vote. Since that election, Reform have continued to gain in popularity with the white working class, of which Makerfield is over-representative of.

So, why pick it? It’s going to be a bloodbath. Farage is going to throw everything he has into it, not least because he’s aware that Burnham would be a fearsome opponent. The £5mn ‘personal donation’ should help Reform with its spending.

We could argue its simply coincidental: Josh Simons was the only one willing to resign and it is Burnham’s only viable return to Westminster.

But put yourself in Burnham’s mind if you can. It’s a ridiculous feat to give up your mayoralty where you have garnered exceptional popularity and a curated political identity if the moment you are anointed King of the…Labour Party(?) the rumblings of discontent continue with the Parliamentary Labour Party. More so disappointing is it to join the expanding list of Prime Ministers who take power due to infighting and lose it at the ballot box.

If you want real credibility, the type that not only impresses your own party’s MPs, but the public’s and that of the media, you need to win a race that hasn’t been handed to you on a silver platter. You must keep the nation on tenterhooks up until the moment the votes are tallied up and your victory is undeniable.

It’s clever. Win a seat which would be otherwise un-winnable. The majority of Labour candidates would lose here to Reform; it’s their target - deep in the traditional ‘red wall’. Winning here justifies your decision to end your mayoral term, it entrenches your support with the backbenchers, and it proves - with wall-to-wall coverage - that you can and will beat reform, while inserting an ever-so-important caveat. We can and will beat reform…with ME at the helm.

It is worth noting here that I’m assuming once Burnham wins his seat, he will become the leader of the Labour Party and by extension Prime Minister. Of course, technically, this isn’t a guarantee. Starmer may not stand aside and may fight him in a leadership challenge; these are possibilities, yet all roads end with Burnham.

Burnham then, is capable but waiting. The National Executive Committee (NEC) - Labour’s board to choose electoral candidates - still has to meet and give him the blessing; Starmer has already signalled he will not do as he previously did and deny Burnham the priviledge. The government still has to ‘move the writ’, a fanciful way of describing how the government triggers a by-election; it is at the government’s discretion when to do this, although the internal and external pressure to do so will force this to be done sooner rather than later. Then follows the entire election process.

The first half of this post has felt a lot less like my normal writing. Forgive the transition here, and forgive the fact that I’m about to compare myself to Andy Burnham.

I don’t think I’m the next Labour leader or Prime Minister (in fact, I cannot even see myself as a councillor, never mind an MP), but I can almost taste the blood, sweat and tears that Burnham will be going through now and up until the election. Burnham, his worn out mid-30s political assistants, and his fresh(er) organising team, will be working flat out towards a goal which seems likely but is by no means guaranteed.

At the moment I feel a little like this. Without the unpaid interns of course, but still, working in one form or another to hit a goal or target which I hope pays off, yet is so far is showing very little.

I still work three days a week in dentistry - a career I despise - so that I can keep the lights on and petrol in the car; I probably need to do more days if the Iranian misadventure continues. I always hesitate when I type how I hate dentistry, not least as my colleagues may read this (yeah right!), but because a patient may one day stumble upon this. I don’t think it’s unprofessional; I still work to my very best and always try to treat people with a considerable level of respect and empathy that I rarely see reciprocated. Either way, I still dread the days I have to put on my scrubs.

In-person university has finished now; I’m left with four days a week of ‘free time’. Dissertation work is currently taking up at least three of these, and such I am left with one day of serene relaxation. If people on my course read this they would probably laugh and wonder why I need three full days a week to do dissertation work, especially with months to go. My brain - though clearly very large (…) - takes longer to process and make connections between content I read. I also haven’t had the pleasure of writing a dissertation before.

(Trigger warning for the next paragraph. I discuss applying for jobs in Britain in 2026)

I let it slip my brain more regularly than I’d like, but I need to keep applying for other careers. If I deplore clinical life as much as I claim, then the imperative is on me to be working towards getting out of it. So I apply and apply and apply and apply. Often applications take hours, so I do this after work on any number of days.

I was enjoying going to the gym a lot and rowing at Durham, but rowing has died a sudden death it seems. I’m just glad I never paid the £50 sign up fee.

I’m slipping with the Substacks. I’m writing them less frequently and possibly to a lesser standard. It’s a time issue more than one of dwindling passion. As part of the Chatham House programme I was extremely grateful to be invited to, I am expected to regularly write and contribute to their work. I have, but not nearly as much as I would like to.

I find once I have spent a day of reading a screen, or a journal article, or an application, my brain has ceased to create new neural connections. There’s no point forcing reading my book for pleasure; Tiktok calls for me at these points.

Another thought I’ve been ruminating on is where I should be. Not in the abstract version of where, but physically where. Jesmond - with its pink range rovers, Schoffels and overpriced brunchs, holds a special place in my heart. I don’t know if its healthy for repetition to take hold though, nor if it’s healthy to become glued to your university town.

As I said above my brain often works at a snails pace, but once it’s completed a process there’s no turning back. If I come to a decision that I need to leave; if I want to try my chances in London, or to do away with the UK and become an au pair in the Italy, it is unlikely I will be able to shake the thought without an continuing feeling of regret for something that never was.

I feel like I am capable of doing any of these things. I’m capable of moving to a new city, whether that’s for my dream career or simply a change of scenery. I’m capable of producing some high quality written work (a phrase uttered only in a CV), and I’m capable of pushing my time to its absolute limits. As long as I get somewhere.

I’m capable but waiting. Just like Andy Burnham is.

I have no other similarities to the man. I don’t wish to be him and I certainly expect he would be mortified at the fact a 25 year old student is even attempting to bridge a connection.

Somewhere in this writing I lost my direction a little bit and I lost my tone a lot. That’s okay. As I continually proselytise - I’m all about change.

By the way, I asked Claude to review the post, and one section of its response was:

The personal section reads like a Substack written by someone who is tired — which, to be fair, is the point — but tiredness is better shown than catalogued. Dentistry, dissertation, jobs, gym, rowing, Chatham House, TikTok, Jesmond brunches. At some point I started checking whether you'd accidentally pasted in your Google Calendar. One concrete scene would do more than all of it combined.

The sooner we ban AI the better.